Explanatory notes:
Figure 1.Key feature identified on ECMWF model simulation of surface winds for 06Z(2 PM Malaysian time) today based on the 00Z run today.Background image from Windytv,key features and drawing by me.Dashed line represents troughs while arrows point the wind direction and by no means indicate wind speed.H represents high pressure while L,low pressure with mean sea level pressure in hPa displayed.
Figure 2.Key features identified on true colour RGB satellite image at around 08:00 UTC(4 PM Malaysian time today.Satellite image courtesy of Japanese Meteorological Agency,key feature and drawing by me.
Tomorrow northwesterly low level winds are expected over the region and a steering flow somewhat from the northwest due to a strengthened southern monsoon trough south of Indonesia.Medium chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected with possible dry low level/mid level providing some convective inhibition and the steering flow also means a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning as showers and thunderstorms which form offshore due to land breeze convergence are steered towards the coast.
Then from Thursday to Saturday the doldrums lie over the region again with light low level winds and a steering flow somewhat from the north,this should lead to medium chances of of showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon/evening but not I am hesitant to put high chances due to the possibility of some dry air moving in aloft during this period.
Then from Sunday moderate northeast monsoon conditions with a steering flow somewhat from the east over the region as the Siberian High expands and the atmosphere will become more moist and unstable over the region altogether leading to high chances of showers and thunderstorms.
and "chance of any rain forecasts" are for Melaka City Center
while the detailed description underneath the precis forecasts is for
the forecast area of Melaka area but the chance of rain forecasts in the detailed description
underneath the precis forecasts is the average for the forecast area
unless otherwise stated.
The weather forecasts are produced by me and not by any government agency.Use at your own risk.
The rest of today Tuesday March 21:
Partly to mostly cloudy.Light winds.
Chance of any rain:10%
Wednesday March 22:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms during the early hours and morning.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over inland areas,a medium(50%) chance elsewhere between afternoon and early night.Light winds becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20 km/h from afternoon then becoming light again at night.
25-33 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:50%
Thursday March 23:
Partly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-33 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%
Friday March 24:
Partly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-33 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%
Saturday March 25:
Partly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-33 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%
Sunday March 26:
Partly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%
Monday March 27:
Partly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%
Tuesday March 28:
Partly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%
Forecast produced at 9:00 PM Tuesday March 21.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment