Explanatory notes:
The monsoon trough lies just slightly to the south of Peninsular Malaysia
today with moderate to strong northeast monsoon conditions.
From tomorrow onwards the northeast monsoon and the monsoon trough weakens as the Siberian High contracts slightly.
During early next week(from Sunday) enhanced risk of showers and thunderstorms as weak background low
level easterly winds the development of sea breezes are likely from
afternoon to early night.This will lead to sea breeze convergence
leading to the development of showers and thunderstorms,there
is some uncertainty on the steering flow during early next week however
with the possibility of a steering flow from a somewhat westerly
direction and hence a higher chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms over the more inland areas than the more coastal/western
areas.But a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning hours.I have downgraded the chances of rain during this period with the models not showing as strong signals for precipitation anymore with a drier atmosphere than previously predicted.
During the middle of next week drier
and more stable air from the subtropics penetrates into the
region,reducing the rain chances to slight chances with the development of sea breeze convergence still expected then along with strong solar heating.The timing of any showers and thunderstorms should be later than earlier during the week as the drier air means that it will take time for the convection inhibition to be overcomed and instability to build up with the strong solar heating.
The precis(summary) forecasts
and "chance of any rain forecasts" are for Melaka City Center
while the detailed description underneath the precis forecasts is for
the forecast area of Melaka area but the chance of rain forecasts in the detailed description
underneath the precis forecasts is the average for the forecast area
unless otherwise stated.
The weather forecasts are produced by me and not by any government agency.Use at your own risk.
The rest of Friday March 3:
Precis forecast:Showers and/or rain
Mostly cloudy.A high(70%) of showers.A chance of
thunderstorms.Winds northeasterly 10-20 km/h.
chance of any rain:70%
Saturday March 4:
Precis forecast:Possible showers and thunderstorms in the PM.
Partly
to mostly cloudy.A slight(20%) of a shower or thunderstorm in the
morning.A medium(50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from
afternoon.Winds northeasterly 10-20 km/h becoming light from evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
chance of any rain:50%
Sunday March 5:
Precis forecast:Possible showers and thunderstorms.
Partly
cloudy.A
slight(30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then a
high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon to early
night over inland areas,medium(60%) chance elsewhere.Light northeasterly winds with a light westerly sea breeze in the
afternoon/evening.
24-33 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%
Monday March 6:
Precis forecast:Possible afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Partly
cloudy.A
slight(20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then a
high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over inland areas, a medium(60%) chance elsewhere between
afternoon to early night.Light winds with a westerly
sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%
Tuesday March 7:
Precis forecast:Possible afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.Partly
cloudy.A slight(20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
morning. with a high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over inland areas,a medium(60%) chance elsewhere between
afternoon to early night.Light winds with a westerly sea breeze at 10-20
km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%.
Wednesday March 8:
Precis forecast:Chance of an evening/early night shower or thunderstorm.
Mostly sunny.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm from late afternoon.Light winds with a westerly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-33 Degrees Celsius
chance of any rain:30%
Thursday March 9:
Precis forecast:Mostly sunny.
Mostly sunny.A slight(20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm from late afternoon.Light winds becoming northeasterly 10-20 km/h during from mid morning to mid afternoon then becoming light again.
25-34 Degrees Celsius
chance of any rain:20%
Friday March 10:
Precis forecast:Mostly sunny.
Mostly sunny.A slight(20%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm from late afternoon.Light winds becoming northeasterly 10-20 km/h during from mid morning to mid afternoon then becoming light again.
25-34 Degrees Celsius
chance of any rain:20%
Forecast produced at 5:00 PM Friday March 3.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.
