Weather forecast for Melaka(Malacca) produced at 5:00 PM Monday March 20

Melaka(Malacca) 7 day weather forecast produced at 5:00 PM Monday March 20:
Explanatory notes:

Figure 1.Key feature identified on ECMWF model simulation of surface winds for 06Z(2 PM Malaysian time) today based on the 00Z run today.Background image from Windytv,key features and drawing by me.Dashed line represents troughs while arrows point the wind direction and by no means indicate wind speed.H represents high pressure while L,low pressure with mean sea level pressure in hPa displayed.

Figure 2.Key features identified on true colour RGB satellite image at around 08:00 UTC(4 PM Malaysian time today.Satellite image courtesy of Japanese Meteorological Agency,key feature and drawing by me.

During Tuesday and Wednesday northwesterly low level winds are expected over the region and a steering flow somewhat from the west due to a strengthened southern monsoon trough south of Indonesia along with the possible development of two tropical cyclone south of Java island within that monsoon trough.The Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center(TCWC) of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) expects a high chance of the tropical low slightly to the northwest of Broome to develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday with an increasing chances of the tropical low near the Cocos and Christmas Islands developing into a tropical cyclone towards the end of the week.

Medium chances of showers and thunderstorms are still expected then(during Tuesday and Wednesday) with the atmosphere remaining moist and unstable and the steering flow then also means a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning as showers and thunderstorms which form offshore due to land breeze convergence are steered towards the coast.

Then from Thursday the doldrums lie over the region again with light low level winds,this should also lead significant chances of showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon/evening but there is some uncertainty with possible dry air moving in aloft then.

The precis(summary) forecasts
and "chance of any rain forecasts" are for Melaka City Center
while the detailed description underneath the precis forecasts is for
the forecast area of Melaka area but the chance of rain forecasts in the detailed description
underneath the precis forecasts is the average for the forecast area
unless otherwise stated.
The weather forecasts are produced by me and not by any government agency.Use at your own risk.



The rest of Monday March 20:

Precis forecast:Chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Mostly cloudy with a slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm.Light winds.
Chance of any rain:30%

Tuesday March 21:

Precis forecast:Possible showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms during the early hours and morning.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over inland areas,a medium(50%) chance elsewhere between afternoon and early night.Light winds becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20 km/h from afternoon then becoming light again at night.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:50%

Wednesday March 22:

Precis forecast:Possible showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms during the early hours and morning.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over inland areas,a medium(50%) chance elsewhere between afternoon and early night.Light winds becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20 km/h from afternoon then becoming light again at night.
25-33 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%

Thursday March 23:

Precis forecast:Possible afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%

Friday March 24:

Precis forecast:Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%

Saturday March 25:

Precis forecast:Possible afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%

Sunday March 26:

Precis forecast:Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%

Monday March 27:

Precis forecast:Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%




Forecast produced at 5:00 PM Monday March 20.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.