Explanatory notes:
Today was a very wet day with the active northeast monsoon.There is plenty of low level moisture available for showers and thunderstorms to trigger further showers and thunderstorms upwind as the downdrafts encounter the moist northeast monsoon winds resulted in the hours of rain due to some "training".
Over the east coast states it was even wetter with low level wind convergence continuously triggering showers and thunderstorms over the South China Sea and these getting enhanced near the coast due to low level wind convergence of northeast monsoon winds with land breeze with the rainfall leading to cool temperatures inland.
Northeast monsoon throughout the forecast period with the monsoon trough within the vicinity of the region.The northeast monsoon would be quite strong over the South China Sea from Thursday to Sunday with the northeast monsoon cold surge as high pressure system spreads southwards over China.
This likely leads to a heavy rainfall episode over east coast states with low level wind convergence of the moist and unstable northeast monsoon winds.
Another heavy rainfall episode over the east coast states is possible next week but still some uncertainty.This heavy rainfall episode could be accompanied by the development of a tropical low within the vicinity of Northern Peninsula Malaysia and this could lead to very wet weather conditions throughout the Peninsula on Wednesday.
How wet the next few days depends on the strength of the northeast monsoon over the Peninsula,GFS 00Z has stronger northeast monsoon winds with greater low level wind convergence,this situation leading to more rainfall compared to the ECMWF 00Z solution.
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