Explanatory notes:
Figure 1.Key feature identified on ECMWF model simulation of surface winds for 06Z(2 PM Malaysian time) today based on the 00Z run today.Background image from Windytv,key features and drawing by me.Dashed line represents troughs while arrows point the wind direction and by no means indicate wind speed.H represents high pressure while L,low pressure with mean sea level pressure in hPa displayed.
Figure 2.Key features identified on true colour RGB satellite image at around 08:00 UTC(4 PM Malaysian time today.
The region lies within the doldrum region with a moist and unstable atmosphere with a northern monsoon trough that lies north of the forecast area leading to a steering flow that gradually shifts to be coming from the west and increasing in strength throughout the forecast period.This steering flow also means possible showers and thunderstorms in the early hours and morning as showers and thunderstorms forming due to land breeze convergence over the Straits of Melaka could propagate onshore.
Reducing chances of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours from the weekend and into early next week. and into early next week due to the stronger steering flow from the west among other reasons.
and "chance of any rain forecasts" are for Melaka City Center
while the detailed description underneath the precis forecasts is for
the forecast area of Melaka area but the chance of rain forecasts in the detailed description
underneath the precis forecasts is the average for the forecast area
unless otherwise stated.
The weather forecasts are produced by me and not by any government agency.Use at your own risk.
The rest of today Wednesday March 29:
Precis forecast:Partly cloudy.
Partly cloudy.Light winds.
Chance of any rain:0%
Thursday March 30:
Precis forecast:Possible showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon over inland areas,a medium(60%) chance elsewhere.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%
Friday March 31:
Precis forecast:Possible showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon over inland areas,medium(40%) chance elsewhere.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:50%
Saturday April 1:
Precis forecast:Possible showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon over inland areas,medium(40%) chance elsewhere.Light winds becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20km/h during the afternoon/evening then becoming light again.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:50%
Sunday April 2:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon over inland areas,medium(40%) chance elsewhere.Light winds becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20km/h during the afternoon/evening then becoming light again.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:50%
Monday April 3:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon over inland areas,medium(40%) chance elsewhere.Light winds becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20km/h during the afternoon/evening then becoming light again.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:50%
Tuesday April 4:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A medium(50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon over inland areas,slight(30%) chance elsewhere.Light winds becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20km/h during the afternoon/evening then becoming light again.
25-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:30%
Wednesday April 5:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A medium(50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon over inland areas,slight(30%) chance elsewhere.Light winds becoming west to northwesterly at 10-20km/h during the afternoon/evening then becoming light again.
25-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:30%
Forecast produced at 11:00 PM Wednesday March 29.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.
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