Explanatory notes:
Figure 1.Key feature identified on ECMWF model simulation of surface winds for 06Z(2 PM Malaysian time) today based on the 00Z run today.Background image from Windytv,key features and drawing by me.Dashed line represents troughs while arrows point the wind direction and by no means indicate wind speed.H represents high pressure while L,low pressure with mean sea level pressure in hPa displayed.
Figure 2.Key features identified on true colour RGB satellite image at around 08:00 UTC(4 PM Malaysian time today.
During tomorrow the doldrums lie over the region with light low level winds and a light steering flow,this should lead to medium chances of of showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon/evening.The light steering flow also means possible showers and thunderstorms in the early hours and morning as showers and thunderstorms forming due to land breeze convergence over the Straits of Melaka could propagate onshore.
During tomorrow the doldrums lie over the region with light low level winds and a light steering flow,this should lead to medium chances of of showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon/evening.The light steering flow also means possible showers and thunderstorms in the early hours and morning as showers and thunderstorms forming due to land breeze convergence over the Straits of Melaka could propagate onshore.
Then from Sunday to Tuesday moderate northeast monsoon conditions with a steering flow somewhat from the east over the region as the Siberian High expands and the atmosphere will become more moist and unstable over the region altogether leading to high chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Then from Wednesday the region lies within the doldrum region again,with a light steering flow.The light steering flow also means possible showers and thunderstorms in the early hours and morning as showers and thunderstorms forming due to land breeze convergence over the Straits of Melaka could propagate towards the onshore.
During Friday possibly drier air moves in aloft reducing rain chances but there is still plenty of uncertainty.
and "chance of any rain forecasts" are for Melaka City Center
while the detailed description underneath the precis forecasts is for
the forecast area of Melaka area but the chance of rain forecasts in the detailed description
underneath the precis forecasts is the average for the forecast area
unless otherwise stated.
The weather forecasts are produced by me and not by any government agency.Use at your own risk.
The rest of today Friday March 24:
Partly to mostly cloudy.Light winds.
Chance of any rain:10%
Saturday March 25:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-33 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%
Sunday March 26:
Partly cloudy.A medium(60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms between afternoon and early night.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
25-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:60%
Monday March 27:
Precis forecast:PM showers and thunderstorms.
Partly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%
Tuesday March 28:
Partly cloudy.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%
Wednesday March 29:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon most likely over inland areas.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%
Thursday March 30:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A high(70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon most likely over inland areas.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:70%
Friday March 31:
Partly cloudy.A slight(30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the early hours and morning.A medium(50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms from afternoon most likely over inland areas.Light winds with a west to southwesterly sea breeze at 10-20 km/h in the afternoon/evening.
24-32 Degrees Celsius
Chance of any rain:50%
Forecast produced at 11:00 PM Friday March 24.Weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.
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